The pitfalls and potential of debt-for-nature swaps: A US-Indonesian case study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Danny Cassimon  Martin Prowse  Dennis Essers   《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):93-102

The vital role of forests in limiting the likelihood of dangerous climate change has precipitated renewed interest in debt-for-nature swaps. This article uses evidence on past debt-for-nature deals and similar debt mechanisms to assess a recent second wave of such swaps. It outlines five typical shortcomings of this form of financial transaction: that they often fail to deliver additional resources to the debtor country and/or debtor government budget; often fail to deliver more resources for conservation/climate purposes; often have a negligible effect on overall debt burdens (and, as such, do not generate more ‘indirect’ benefits); and are often in conflict with principles of alignment with government policy and alignment with government systems (these two last shortcomings being important elements within the new aid delivery paradigm). Our analysis is applied to a recent debt-for-nature swap between the United States and Indonesia. We show that this case, which we consider a litmus test for current swap practice, performs unevenly across the five shortcomings. First, although the US-Indonesian swap does increase available resources to Indonesia at the country level, it does not generate extra budgetary room for the Indonesian government. Second, the extent to which the resources provided by the swap are additional to other donor support and reserved domestic budget lines for conservation goals is unclear. Third, the swap is too insignificant to create indirect (positive) economic effects. Regarding alignment issues, fourth, the swap is very much in line with current national policy, but, fifth, appears at odds with the new aid delivery paradigm's insistence on system alignment. We argue that if a second generation of debt-for-nature swaps is to be pursued then they need to avoid the common pitfalls associated with this form of finance. Moreover, there is a need to debate broader ways of linking debt service repayments to climate mitigation and adaptation.  相似文献   

Inequalities, institutions, and forest commons   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Krister AnderssonArun Agrawal 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):866-875

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the commons that examines the relationship between inequality and commons outcomes. Our analysis of evidence on forest commons outcomes in 228 cases from South Asia (India and Nepal), East Africa (Kenya and Uganda) and Latin America (Mexico and Bolivia) suggests that local governance and collective action matter in shaping how socioeconomic inequalities affect forest conditions. In particular, we find that both inter-group and intra-group economic inequalities have consistently negative effects on forest outcomes, but that effectively functioning local institutions for collective action dampen the negative effect of inter-group inequality on forest outcomes.  相似文献   

21个气候模式对东亚夏季环流模拟的评估II:年际变化   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

张宏芳  陈海山 《气象科学》2011,31(3):247-257

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA40再分析资料, 评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告的21个全球海气耦合模式对东亚地区夏季大气环流年际变率的模拟能力,结果表明：（1）模式对东亚地区不同要素的年际变率模拟能力整体偏弱, 500 hPa高度场的模拟能力总体优于海平面气压场及850 hPa风场;（2）两大环流系统年际变率的模拟结果评估表明：就相关系数而言,副高强度、面积的模拟能力优于印度低压,多数模式能正确模拟出副高1970s后期增强的趋势;就标准差来看,模式对印度低压、印度低压东伸槽模拟效果相对较好;（3）评估三种季风指数的模拟能力结果显示,环流异常指数模拟效果略好,但多数模式都不能模拟出海陆气压差、经向风、环流异常季风指数的年际变化。  相似文献   

Phytoplankton biomass and primary production responses to physico-chemical forcing across the northeastern New Zealand continental shelf     

Mark Gall  John Zeldis 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(17):1799-1810

Phytoplankton biomass and primary production were monitored in the Hauraki Gulf and on the northeastern continental shelf, New Zealand - using ship surveys, moored instruments and satellite observations (1998-2001) - capturing variability across a range of space and time scales. A depth-integrated primary production model (DIM) was used to predict integrated productivity from surface parameters, enabling regional-specific estimates from satellite data. The shelf site was dominated by pico-phytoplankton, with low chlorophyll-a (<1 mg m⁻³) and annual production (136 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). In contrast, the gulf contained a micro/nano-phytoplankton-dominated community, with relatively high chlorophyll-a (>1 mg m⁻³) and annual production (178 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). Biomass and productivity responded to physico-chemical factors; a combination of light, critical mixing depths and/or nutrient limitation—particularly new nitrate-N. Relatively low biomass and production was observed during 1999. This coincided with inter-annual variability in the timing and extent of upwelling- and downwelling-favourable along-shelf wind-stress, influencing the fluxes of new nitrate-N to the shelf and gulf. Relationships with the Southern Oscillation Index are also discussed. Our multi-scaled sampling highlighted details associated with stratification and de-stratification events, and deep sub-surface chlorophyll-a not visible to satellite sensors. This study demonstrates the importance of multi-scaled sampling in gaining estimates of regional production and its responses to physico-chemical forcing.  相似文献   

Divergence of solutions to perturbation-based advection-dispersion moment equations     

Kenneth D. Jarman  Alexandre M. Tartakovsky 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(5):659-670

Moment equation methods are popular and powerful tools for modeling transport processes in randomly heterogeneous porous media, but the application of these methods to advection-dispersion equations often leads to erroneous oscillations. Perturbative methods, required to close systems of moment equations, become inaccurate for large perturbations; however, little quantitative theory exists for determining when this occurs for advection-dispersion equations. We consider three different methods (asymptotic approximation, Eulerian truncation, and iterative solution) for closing and solving advection-dispersion moment equations describing transport in stratified porous media with random permeability. We obtain approximate analytical expressions for time above which the asymptotic approximation to the mean diverges, in particular quantifying the impact that dispersion has on delaying—but not eliminating—divergence. We demonstrate that Eulerian truncation and iterative solution methods do not eliminate divergent behavior either. Our divergence criteria provide a priori estimates that signal a warning to the practitioner of stochastic advection-dispersion equations to carefully consider whether to apply perturbative approaches.  相似文献   

基于随机二元指标的边坡稳定性分析     

刘小强  周世良  尚明芳  李怡 《地震工程学报》2011,33(Z1)

考虑岩土体抗剪强度参数的变异性,综合极限平衡法和可靠性理论构建了安全系数概率密度分布函数模型。结合实际工程特点,以安全系数大于临界值为标准构建有效区,将有效区安全系数均值与对应可靠度相乘,得到以安全系数和可靠度为随机二元指标的有效安全系数。以有效安全系数为定量指标,将边坡宏观特征现象与定量分析相联系,构建意义更为明确的边坡稳定性分析及评价方法。通过工程实例对比了有效安全系数与传统评价指标之间的差异。所得结论可为工程建设提供参考和借鉴。  相似文献   

黄海绿潮应急溯源数值模拟初步研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴玲娟  曹丛华  黄娟  曹雅静  高松  白涛 《海洋科学集刊》2011,50(6):44-47

基于三维全动力POM 海洋模式, 根据2008 年6 月1 日海监飞机监测绿潮所在位置, 采用拉格朗日粒子追踪法反向积分, 追溯绿潮来源。数值模拟结果显示, 回溯至5 月中旬, 绿潮主要来源于黄海南部江苏连云港和盐城近海海域。黄海绿潮溯源数值模拟, 为政府相关部门了解绿潮的源头, 并采取相应的措施提供依据, 进而为保护生态环境、防灾减灾做贡献。  相似文献   

Numerical study on the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current     

Yulong Liu  Qi Wang  Jun Song  Xiande Zhu  Xiaoqing Gong  Fang Wu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2011,10(4):305-313

A 1.5-layer reduced-gravity model forced by wind stress is used to study the bifurcations of the North Equatorial Current(NEC).The authors found that after removing the Ekman drift,the modelled circulations can serve well as a proxy of the SODA circulations on the σθ=25.0 kg m～-3 potential density surface based on available long-term reanalysis wind stress data.The modelled results show that the location of the western boundary bifurcation of the NEC depends on both zonal averaged and local zero wind stress curl latitude.The effects of the anomalous wind stress curl added in different areas are also investigated and it is found that they can change the strength of the Mindanao Eddy(ME),and then influence the interior pathway.  相似文献   

Conifer stomata analysis in paleoecological studies on the Loess Plateau: An example from Tianchi Lake, Liupan Mountains     

K. ZhangY. Zhao  X.L. Guo 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(11):1209-1213

The identification of fossil conifer stomata was conducted from a lake sedimentary sequence on the Liupan Mountains, southwestern Loess Plateau, in order to reconstruct detailed forest history and assess the potential of using stomata as a supplement to pollen analysis to determine the local presence of conifers over the last 3200 years. The pollen has already been analyzed in our previous study. Reference conifer stomata were prepared for the fossil stomata identification and demonstrate that the conifer stomata could be identified to at least genus level. Our stomata and pollen results reveal three clear stages of the forest recession during the late Holocene: mixed conifer-deciduous forest, steppe-forest and steppe. Combined stomata and pollen results confirm the local presence of conifer trees (Abies and Pinus) in the vicinity of the Tianchi Lake. Abundant Abies trees existed during 3200-2200 cal yr BP. Then it decreased and finally demised at ca.210 cal yr BP. Pinus trees have been continuously present with very low abundance throughout the late Holocene. Application of comprehensive studies comprising both stomata and pollen analyses allowed a detailed determination of the stages of conifer trees presence in the vicinity of the Tianchi Lake. Our study suggests that the analysis of fossil stomata is a valuable methodological tool for the provision of unambiguous evidence of the past local presence of the coniferous taxa in this region.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal patterns of tropical deforestation and forest degradation in response to the operation of the Tucuruí hydroelectric dam in the Amazon basin     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

The planned construction of hundreds of hydroelectric dams in the Amazon basin has the potential to provide invaluable ‘clean’ energy resources for aiding in securing future regional energy needs and continued economic growth. These mega-structures, however, directly and indirectly interfere with natural ecosystem dynamics, and can cause noticeable tree loss. To improve our understanding of how hydroelectric dams affect the surrounding spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances, this case study integrated remote sensing spectral mixture analysis, GIS proximity analysis and statistical hypothesis testing to extract and evaluate spatially-explicit patterns of deforestation (clearing of entire forest patch) and forest degradation (reduced tree density) in the 80,000 km² neighborhoods of the Brazil's Tucuruí Dam, the first large-scale hydroelectric project in the Amazon region, over a period of 25 years from 1988 to 2013. Results show that the average rates of deforestation were consistent during the first three time periods 1988–1995 (620 km² per year), 1995–2001 (591 km² per year), and 2001–2008 (660 km² per year). However, such rate dramatically fell to half of historical levels after 2008, possibly reflecting the 2008 global economic crisis and enforcement of the Brazilian Law of Environmental Crimes. The rate of forest degradation was relatively stable from 1988 to 2013 and, on average, was 17.8% of the rate of deforestation. Deforestation and forest degradation were found to follow similar spatial patterns across the dam neighborhoods, upstream reaches or downstream reaches at the distances of 5 km–80 km, suggesting that small and large-scale forest disturbances may have been influencing each other in the vicinity of the dam. We further found that the neighborhoods of the Tucuruí Dam and the upstream region experienced similar degrees of canopy loss. Such loss was mainly attributed to the fast expansion of the Tucuruí town, and the intensive logging activities alongside major roads in the upstream reservoir region. In contrast, a significantly lower level of forest disturbance was discovered in the downstream region.  相似文献